Notes which I have collected from various sources in no particular order
You have to be careful to include incentives in the analysis of crowd opinions. Markets make it easy; likely everyone else buying and selling in the market wants to at least preserve the value of their investment and most are hoping to make money. Few are willing to risk catastrophic loss.
When it's politics (voting or polls or horsetrading) or other choices that are more complexly connected to particular outcomes then market-like assumptions about the averages make less sense. E.g. pollsters have known for decades that they can't simply publish the mean average of polling results and expect them to be calibrated at predicting elections; there are many strange biases (including sampling) at play.
Dating relies on different metrics for attraction between individuals (there isn't actually a universal attractiveness 'currency' to price people with), preferences about children and lifestyle factor heavily, and monogamous dating has complexities from scarcity mindset (optimal stopping among others).
And if you’re stuck preparing for 2025 with a 2021 playbook,
That’s where the problem lies.
I saw them bearing labors and risks with enthusiasm, but now I see them bearing good things moderately. It seems to me, Cyrus, to be more difficult to find a man who bears good things nobly than one who bears evil things nobly, for the former infuse insolence in the many, but the latter infuse moderation in all.
If our actions are like the visible chapters of a book, then values, beliefs, purpose, history, and mental models provide the story beneath.
Hire clowns, get a circus.
Don’t let your career sink with the company.
Gods goodness and grace are the water in which our joy swims.
Those who like to be entertained and wish to avoid making a Type II error are more likely to prefer stories over statistics.
Those who do not necessarily yearn for entertainment but are desperate to avoid Type I errors are apt to prefer statistics to stories.
When a mouse is cornered, he will bite a cat. - Old Chinese saying
When you understand the nature of a thing, you understand what its capable of.
How do you feel? Like hammered 💩
Enjoy earth but feel the challenge of the universe.
History ain’t no mystery! Unless you make it so.
They tried to bury me, but they didn't know I was a seed 🌱