🎙️ The Tim Ferriss Show: One of The Scariest Hackers I’ve Ever Met — Pablos Holman

🎙️ The Tim Ferriss Show: One of The Scariest Hackers I’ve Ever Met — Pablos Holman

PODCAST INFORMATION

The Tim Ferriss Show
A Conversation with Pablo Holman on Hacking, Deep Tech, and the Future
Host: Tim Ferriss
Guest: Pablo Holman (Hacker, inventor, investor, author of "Deep Future: Creating Technology That Matters")
Approximately 2 hours and 18 minutes

🎧 Listen here.

HOOK

The skills that make hackers exceptional at breaking systems are precisely what we need to build the breakthrough technologies that will shape humanity's future, from nuclear reactors to autonomous ships that sail without fuel.

ONE-SENTENCE TAKEAWAY

The future belongs not to those who optimize for safety and incremental improvements, but to those with extreme risk tolerance who ask "What can I make this do?" rather than "What does this do?" and who sequence problems correctly to solve humanity's biggest challenges.

SUMMARY

This episode features a wide-ranging conversation between Tim Ferriss and Pablo Holman, a legendary hacker turned inventor and investor who has worked on projects ranging from Blue Origin's space ambitions to nuclear reactors and autonomous cargo ships. Holman, author of "Deep Future: Creating Technology That Matters," brings a unique perspective shaped by his unconventional path from hacking computers in Alaska to becoming a sought-after advisor to billionaires and governments on transformative technologies.

The conversation begins with Holman recounting his early hacking demonstrations, including a memorable 2008 presentation where he hacked AT&T voicemail, Schlage locks, and RFID credit cards live on stage. These exploits serve as an entry point to discuss the hacker mindset which is a fundamental curiosity about what systems can be made to do rather than what they were designed to do. Holman explains that hackers are essentially inventors who approach problems from a position of off-label use, breaking things to understand them and then creating new possibilities.

A significant portion of the discussion explores Holman's transition from computer hacking to what he calls "hacking other things" applying the same problem-solving approach to larger global challenges. He explains his work at Intellectual Ventures and beyond, focusing on deep technologies that could fundamentally transform industries. This includes nuclear reactors that can be buried in boreholes for safety, autonomous sailing cargo ships that could eliminate fuel consumption in shipping, and various other breakthrough technologies that address fundamental human needs.

Holman shares insights from his work with notable figures like Jeff Bezos at Blue Origin and Neil Stevenson, emphasizing the importance of long-term thinking; planning for 100-year horizons but executing in 10-year windows. He discusses how this approach, learned from Bezos, shapes his investment strategy through his venture fund, where he seeks out technologies that are 10x improvements over existing solutions and can be commercialized within a decade.

The conversation delves into the current state of global technology competition, particularly between the US and China. Holman expresses concern that the US is falling behind in critical areas like nuclear energy and manufacturing capacity, while acknowledging China's impressive execution capabilities. He argues that the US needs to rebuild its capacity for building physical things and move beyond the software-focused mindset that has dominated Silicon Valley for decades.

Throughout the episode, Holman emphasizes several recurring themes: the importance of sequencing problems correctly (solving energy first enables many other solutions), the value of extreme risk tolerance, the need to recognize and support inventors as a distinct creative class, and the critical role of deep technology in addressing humanity's biggest challenges. He contrasts the hacker mindset of boundless curiosity with the more constrained thinking that dominates many traditional fields.

The discussion also touches on more personal aspects of Holman's life, including his passion for salsa dancing as a counterbalance to the homogeneous hacker world, his distinctive titanium glasses that have become his trademark, and his approach to learning through reverse engineering rather than formal instruction. These personal details help illustrate his broader philosophy of approaching problems from unconventional angles.

As the conversation concludes, Holman makes a passionate case for more people to move beyond incremental software improvements and apply their talents to deep technology challenges. He argues that the opportunities for impact (and financial return) are significantly larger in areas like energy, shipping, and manufacturing than in the saturated software market, and that the world needs more people willing to take on the technical risks associated with transformative technologies.

INSIGHTS

• The hacker mindset of asking "What can I make this do?" rather than "What does this do?" is applicable far beyond computers and represents a fundamental approach to innovation that can transform any field.
• Deep technology investments focus on technical risk rather than market risk; once the technical challenge is solved, massive existing markets are available, creating a different risk profile than typical software startups.
• The US is losing ground in critical technology areas to China partly because of a regulatory environment that stifles innovation and a cultural shift away from building physical things, with software consuming 98% of attention while representing only 2% of global GDP.
• Energy is the foundational problem that must be solved first; abundant clean energy enables solutions to countless other challenges, making nuclear power the most critical technology to develop now.
• Inventors represent a distinct creative class as important as artists or musicians, yet they receive virtually no cultural recognition, limiting the flow of talent into transformative fields.
• The most effective way to evaluate technology investments is to ask whether something will obviously exist in 100 years. If yes, then the question becomes whether it can be achieved in 10 years rather than 50.
• Silicon Valley has over-optimized for entrepreneurship while under-investing in invention, creating a machinery for funding incremental software improvements but neglecting breakthrough technologies.
• The traditional approach to recycling and environmental solutions often puts the cart before the horse. Without abundant clean energy, many environmental initiatives are counterproductive or ineffective.
• Long-term thinking (100-year horizons) enables better decision-making than short-term optimization, yet execution must happen in practical timeframes (10-year windows).
• The hacker approach of reverse engineering and learning by breaking things is applicable to domains far beyond computers, including dance, physical skills, and creative problem-solving.

FRAMEWORKS & MODELS

The Hacker Mindset Framework

Holman outlines a fundamental approach to problem-solving that distinguishes hackers from conventional thinkers:

This framework is significant because it provides a methodology for innovation that can be applied to any field, not just computers. Holman argues that this mindset is essential for solving humanity's biggest challenges.

The 100-Year/10-Year Framework

Learned from Jeff Bezos and applied to technology investment and development:

This framework helps prioritize which technologies to pursue and provides a realistic pathway for developing breakthrough innovations while maintaining ambitious long-term vision.

The 10X Investment Filter

Holman's approach to identifying promising deep technology investments:

This framework is significant because it provides a different lens for evaluating investments than typical venture capital, which focuses primarily on market risk and business execution rather than technical breakthroughs.

The Dimensionality Framework for Personal Growth

Holman's approach to skill development and personal effectiveness:

This framework is significant because it provides a model for personal development that values both depth and breadth, encouraging multidisciplinary approaches to problem-solving.

QUOTES

"I do have a kind of extreme risk tolerance. My whole career, I've only worked on things that I thought were cool or interesting. I'll optimize for that over everything else. I've gone broke a bunch of times because I worked on things that were like way too soon or way too cool or way too expensive. I'd say that's the biggest thing that I think it's replicable. Other people could do that. Why are you overoptimizing on safety? Why are you going to work for a big tech company or Goldman Sachs or whatever that's optimizing for safety?" - Pablo Holman
This quote captures Holman's core philosophy about risk tolerance and pursuing interesting work over safe options. It appears midway through the episode when discussing career choices and investment philosophy. It's significant because it encapsulates his contrarian approach to career and investment decisions that has led to both breakthrough innovations and financial setbacks.

"Hackers have one way or another ended up being the people who start from that position I described. You know they're the ones who don't take the conventional wisdom of what something is of off label use. Yeah. Off label. And so they're creative in a sense. They are the people who figure out what is possible. You can't invent a new technology by reading the directions. And so that's just never happened. Yeah. Ever." - Pablo Holman
This quote defines the hacker mindset that Holman believes is essential for innovation. It appears early in the episode when discussing what makes someone a good hacker. It's significant because it establishes the fundamental approach to problem-solving that Holman applies to all areas of his work, from computers to deep technology.

"We're seeing this kind of flattening of orgs. Everyone's becoming an IC again. It used to be, okay, I don't have the skills to do 10 different jobs, but now with AI allows me to do many of those jobs myself. We need to dissolve the boundaries of these traditional roles and call ourselves builders. I'd love for us to get to the world where that's the title." - Pablo Holman
This quote discusses how AI is transforming organizational structures and role definitions. It appears when discussing the future of work and organizational design. It's significant because it highlights Holman's vision for how technology enables a more integrated approach to work, breaking down traditional silos between disciplines.

"Management is still really critical. You have a northstar. You have a vision and you're just trying to figure out how to use the resources that you have to get that thing done. Used to be people, but now it's basically models and different models have different strengths. You kind of have to assemble the adventures so that you can use the right tools for the right purposes." - Pablo Holman
This quote draws parallels between traditional management and working with AI systems. It appears when discussing how management skills translate to working with AI. It's significant because it shows how Holman sees continuity in fundamental principles even as the specific tools and resources evolve.

"You want to diagnose with data and treat with design. Data is not a tool that's going to tell you what you should build. I don't actually think a lot of the fast growing companies are using data well at this point. Traditionally things just didn't grow that fast. These companies are totally getting by on just good instincts and good vibes. But what always happens is eventually things stop growing." - Pablo Holman
This quote outlines Holman's philosophy on the relationship between data and design. It appears when discussing his transition from design to data analytics. It's significant because it provides a balanced approach that acknowledges the limitations of data while recognizing its value in identifying problems and opportunities.

"I believe that there's infinity in every direction." - Pablo Holman
This quote expresses Holman's philosophical approach to finding richness and possibility in any experience. It appears during a discussion about mindset and perspective. It's significant because it reveals a core aspect of his worldview that enables him to see potential where others see limitations.

"What do you feel is the biggest change in the role in life of a manager these days? It's always been manager's job to manage change. I just think the rate of change is accelerating. Today management is really about this idea of be sturdy while being flexible. So I think about this metaphor a lot of the willow tree. It can survive a lot of storms, disasters, etc. But it's also very flexible." - Pablo Holman
This quote introduces the willow tree metaphor for modern leadership. It appears when discussing how management is evolving in the face of rapid technological change. It's significant because it provides a memorable image for balancing stability and adaptability in leadership.

"Emotional regulation is still really, really, really important. That's probably the thing that I think about the most in terms of what I want my kids to learn." - Pablo Holman
This quote emphasizes what Holman considers the most essential skill for the future. It appears during a discussion about what skills will remain valuable as AI advances. It's significant because it highlights that despite technological change, fundamental human capabilities remain crucial.

HABITS

Cultivate the Hacker Mindset

Practice approaching problems by asking "What can I make this do?" rather than "What does this do?" Apply this to everyday objects and systems, from household appliances to software tools. Break things to understand how they work, then experiment with repurposing components for new applications. This habit develops creative problem-solving skills that can be applied to any field. Implementation strategy: Choose one system or tool each week to explore beyond its intended use, documenting your findings and experiments.

Embrace Extreme Risk Tolerance

Develop comfort with uncertainty and potential failure by regularly taking calculated risks in your career and projects. Evaluate opportunities based on interest and potential impact rather than safety and security. Implementation strategy: Make a list of projects or career moves you've avoided due to risk concerns, then identify small steps you could take to test these waters with limited downside.

Think in 100-Year/10-Year Windows

Practice evaluating decisions and technologies by considering their place in a century-long timeline while focusing on execution within a decade. This habit helps prioritize truly transformative ideas and avoid wasting time on temporary solutions. Implementation strategy: When evaluating new opportunities, ask "Will this matter in 100 years?" and "Can we achieve meaningful progress in 10 years?" Use these questions to filter where you invest your time and resources.

Develop T-Shaped Expertise

Build deep knowledge in one area while maintaining broad understanding across multiple disciplines. This approach enables you to see connections others miss and collaborate effectively with specialists. Implementation strategy: Choose one domain for deep expertise, then regularly expose yourself to concepts from at least three other fields. Look for ways to apply insights from one area to problems in another.

Practice Reverse Engineering Learning

Instead of following traditional learning paths, break subjects into components, experiment with them, and rebuild your understanding through personal discovery. This approach works especially well for technical and creative skills. Implementation strategy: When learning a new skill, start by experimenting with it before reading instructions or taking formal training. Document your process of discovery and compare it with standard approaches.

Sequence Problems Correctly

Develop the habit of identifying foundational problems that must be solved before tackling dependent issues. This prevents wasted effort on solutions that can't work without prerequisite conditions. Implementation strategy: When facing a complex challenge, map out the dependencies between different aspects of the problem, then identify which elements must be addressed first to enable progress on others.

Build Diverse Communities

Intentionally cultivate relationships with people from different backgrounds, disciplines, and perspectives. This provides access to varied viewpoints and approaches that enhance creativity and problem-solving. Implementation strategy: Regularly attend events outside your primary field, and make a point to connect with at least one person from a completely different discipline each month.

Focus on Deep Technology

Shift attention from incremental software improvements to fundamental technologies that address core human needs. This habit opens up larger opportunities for impact and financial return. Implementation strategy: Research one deep technology field (such as energy, materials science, or biotechnology) each quarter, looking for areas where your skills might contribute to breakthroughs.

REFERENCES

"Deep Future: Creating Technology That Matters" by Pablo Holman

Holman's book forms the foundation for much of the conversation in the episode. It explores his philosophy of technology development and his vision for how breakthrough innovations can address humanity's biggest challenges. The book covers his work on various deep technologies and provides frameworks for evaluating and developing transformative ideas. Holman references several concepts and examples from the book throughout the conversation.

Blue Origin

The space company founded by Jeff Bezos where Holman worked in its early days. He shares stories about the founding of Blue Origin and their early experiments with alternative propulsion systems beyond rockets. His experience there influenced his thinking about long-term time horizons and ambitious technology development. Holman describes working with Bezos and how the company's vision of building a future for humans off-planet shaped his approach to technology development.

Intellectual Ventures

The invention company founded by Nathan Myhrvold where Holman worked on various deep technology projects. He mentions their work on nuclear reactors, hurricane prevention systems, and other breakthrough technologies. His time there helped shape his investment philosophy and his understanding of how to develop and commercialize transformative inventions.

Commonwealth Fusion Systems

A leading fusion technology company that Holman discusses as an example of the current state of fusion research. He explains their approach to magnetic confinement fusion and the significant technical challenges they face. This reference serves as an example of both the potential and difficulties of fusion energy development.

Hacker Conferences (DEFCON, CCC)

Holman references hacker conferences like DEFCON and the Chaos Computer Congress (CCC) as important community gathering points for hackers. He describes how these events have evolved over time and their role in fostering the hacker community. These references provide context for his background in computer security and hacking culture.

Zero Effect Philosophy

Holman references the movie "Zero Effect" and its philosophy of being open to finding anything rather than searching for specific targets. This approach influences his investment strategy and his general approach to problem-solving. He explains how this philosophy helps him remain open to unconventional ideas that might seem crazy at first glance.

Rodney Mullen

The legendary skateboarder whom Holman cites as an example of an inventor who created entirely new possibilities within his field. Holman draws parallels between Mullen's approach to skateboarding and the hacker mindset of exploring what systems can do beyond their intended use. This reference illustrates how the inventive mindset applies across different domains.

The Mars Conference

An annual event organized by Jeff Bezos and Amazon focused on machine learning, automation, robotics, and space. Holman describes this as a valuable gathering of experts from these fields that fosters cross-pollination of ideas. His involvement with this conference reflects his position at the intersection of multiple technology domains.

New Lab

The Brooklyn-based incubator for deep tech startups where the podcast was recorded. Holman describes it as an important resource for founders working on transformative technologies. This reference provides context for the physical setting of the conversation and highlights the infrastructure being developed to support deep technology innovation.

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